Bitcoin’s halving cycle is following a classic pattern, similar to those seen in 2013 and 2017, according to recent BTC price metrics. Glassnode, an on-chain analytics firm, released a suite of price metrics on April 11, indicating that Bitcoin’s current halving cycle is playing out in a similar fashion to previous cycles. Despite muted gains in percentage terms, BTC/USD is trending upwards, following what appears to be a bear market bottom. Glassnode’s figures underscore the similarities of the current halving cycle to previous ones. The upcoming halving represents an emission decrease, much like other halvings that preceded it. Analysts are already considering the role of next year’s block subsidy halving, which will cut the amount of BTC miners “mint” per block from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. Bets are increasing over the impact on Bitcoin price performance, with the event acting as a springboard for all-time highs.
Ecoinometrics, a data resource, offered an additional insight into recent performance, stating that new all-time highs are also due, barring a macroeconomic recession distorting the roadmap. “Bitcoin’s price action suggests a bottom has formed, but with an impending global recession, it’s premature to assume,” it reasoned. “Economic uncertainty will increase demand for safe havens, but Bitcoin still trades very much like a risk asset.”
Belief that the 2024 halving cycle will continue the good times has gone nowhere during the latest bear market. Co-founder of trading suite Decentrader, Filbfilb, recently doubled down on his conviction that Bitcoin’s all-time high next cycle will come in 2025 and see a BTC price tag of around $180,000. He noted that as time goes on, Bitcoin price gains will see a “tapering effect” – smaller comparative gains in percentage terms with each cycle.
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