Dogecoin, the popular meme-inspired cryptocurrency, suffered a setback on April 20, known as “Dogeday,” due to the failed test launch of SpaceX’s Starship rocket and a downturn in the broader crypto market. The SpaceX rocket, which featured the Dogecoin mascot on its side, disintegrated four minutes after its launch. Despite this, the company’s employees, including Elon Musk, cheered the failure as they expressed optimism for another test in the coming months.
The launch had built considerable excitement within the Dogecoin community. DogeDesigner, a graphic designer in the Dogecoin community, tweeted about the rocket launch with eagerness. However, Dogeday appears to have turned into a “sell-the-news” event as the DOGE/USD pair lost 11.88% of the day’s high of $0.093 to $0.083.
Despite the drop in prices, the open interest (OI) volume for Dogecoin futures contracts is above the January 2023 high at $470 million, according to Coinglass data. Open Interest volume is the number of open positions in the futures market. Dogecoin’s OI volumes spiked to a yearly peak of $580 million on April 4 after Twitter changed its logo to a Shiba Inu image, which is also used to represent Dogecoin. The DOGE/USD pair exhibited significant volatility following the logo change, rising over 21% to a new yearly peak of $0.10 on April 4. However, the price and IO volumes declined significantly after the social media platform returned to its original blue bird logo. The logo change was active between April 4 to April 7.
A report from crypto analytics firm, Kaiko, noted, “DOGE open interest has roughly doubled since Elon Musk took over Twitter last year, suggesting robust capital inflows.”
The OI volume for futures contracts dropped to $460 million following a wave of liquidations. However, the OI volumes picked up again to $533 million, leading up to the excitement around the rocket launch. The long-to-short ratio of the futures market shows a greater inclination toward short orders, acting as a contrarian signal for further upside. At the same time, the funding rate for perpetual swap contracts has turned positive after the dip, raising the possibility for more downturn from a long squeeze.
The supply distribution of DOGE whale addresses registered a spike with addresses holding more than $10 million in DOGE accumulating quickly. However, these whales sold their DOGE immediately after Twitter changed their logo back. These addresses have repeated the same accumulation and distribution around Dogeday, selling heavily into the Dogeday’s decline.
The DOGE/USD pair has broken below the bullish parallel trend, raising concerns about further downside risk. Based on the size of the parallel channel, the DOGE/USD projects a 15% decline from the present $0.083 level. A drop below of this magnitude will coincide with DOGE support level around $0.072.
The failed launch of SpaceX’s Starship rocket on Dogeday, coupled with the downturn in Bitcoin’s price, dealt a blow to DOGE price. Despite this setback, the open interest volume for Dogecoin futures contracts remains elevated, indicating robust capital inflows. However, the recent dip in prices and increased selling by DOGE whales suggest further downside risks, with the DOGE/USD pair breaking below its bullish support.
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