BitMEX founder, Arthur Hayes, has predicted that Bitcoin could experience a correction of up to 30% to 40% if U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs begin trading. In an essay outlining his trading strategy, Hayes expresses confidence in his ability to time the market and plans to make a strategic move in late February to capitalize on what he believes will be the peak of the market.
However, Hayes also expresses caution about the potential impact of massive fiat inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, warning of a potential dollar liquidity “rug pull.” Due to this concern, he has decided to delay any purchases until after the March decision dates. Hayes emphasizes the importance of carefully selecting a strike price for put options, aiming for them to be 20% to 25% out of the money based on the current at-the-money quarterly June futures contract price.
Hayes believes that the current market sentiment is overly bullish due to central banks flooding the market with printed money and the imminent launch of U.S.-listed and Hong Kong-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs. He suggests that taking a non-consensus view is crucial and that, from a trading perspective, a more cautious approach is favored, considering the risks and rewards involved.
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